Cascading disruption 

Roger Spitz started out in acquisitions and mergers in London and later San Francisco. This gave him a bird’s eye view on the disruption occurring within his sector. The business and tech landscapes are forever changing, we all know that; but the speed at which it’s changing? That’s a different story.  

We as humans can’t keep up and rapid change is far beyond our ability to predict. Roger’s book Disrupt with Impact is about coming to terms with this and adjusting the way we think about it. The concept is of cascading unpredictability means that there are more unknowns within unknowns and tangent offshoots of unpredictable events from unpredictable events. Which is a lot to take in. So where did it all come from? 

History of unpredictability  

Essentially, it’s been around forever. The “Status Quo” as it’s broadly understood is a myth. But unpredictability and the events that cause it have only been increasing. The last ten years have been particularly crazy, Roger says with the new tech that’s blossomed in the last ten years the rapidly increasing number of unpredictable events is only going to get crazier.  

UNVISE

An acronym that should help make sense of the multiple layers of unpredictability and more importantly, what you can do about them. UNVICE is an updated version of VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) to include exponential changes and intersecting factors. Here’s a handy infographic to give businesses the lowdown on the wave of changes coming their way and the correct way to ride that wave through critical thinking.  

Beacons for hope 

Surely with this tornado of unpredictability whirring around us, most businesses wouldn’t be able to adapt in time? Not so. Roger cites the examples of Patagonia, AXA, and Arup who prioritize foresight and systemic thinking into their operations. Organization and tech should go hand-in-hand, and the office staple of Salesforce also gets a mention for a business adapting with the times.  

Techistentialism  

Businesses being existential might seem an abstract concept but it’s essential for them to survive. What is your purpose? What is thepoint of you? Asking yourself hard questions is just the beginning. With the dawn of AI comes another term coined by Roger in the book: Techistentialism. As AI becomes more autonomous and intuitive it will have a drastic effect on our decision-making as humans. Our loss of agency needs to be analyzed through a philosophical lens so that we can better understand ourselves in a world dominated by tech.  

A post-industry planet 

AI is irreversible, Roger argues. Now Pandora’s Box has opened there’s no stopping it. The increasing cascades of unpredictable world events have been directly linked to AI and because of that the future is an unknown unknown. That means industries as we know them will slowly transform, merge or cease to exist. But hope is not lost. New industries are constantly emerging, and the intersecting of sectors could mean a business world undivided.   

Roger’s parting advice for those looking for an antidote to unpredictability is to embrace it.  Integrate systemic thinking into your business model and always be ready to pivot. The future is more uncertain than ever but with that offers the thrilling opportunity to ride that wave.  

Roger Spitz’ insights are in full in his book Disrupt with Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World.